You may or may not have noticed that I have taken an interest as of late in the growing pains and the potential growing pains that China is, or is going to start, experiencing. People love to report on the rise of China in absolute economic terms (second largest economy, largest holder of reserves, etc) but hardly do we ever hear about what the repercussions of those staggering economic terms mean. Yes we heard about the air quality problems durring the Olympics and yes people love to talk about their large population but it is still a forgone conclusion that we will all be speaking Mandarin come the turn of the century.
Now I'm not going to sit here and tell you that China will not be the worlds largest economy, that is going to happen, the numbers dictate as much. When? I have no clue. But I can tell you it is not going to be smooth sailing. China has many problems going forward; an unsustainable aging population, far too many more males than females, restive minority popilations, ubiquitous corruption, no government accountability, horrendous environmental standards, and a growing gap between the rich and poor, just to name a few. China is going to hit bumps, HUGE bumps, in its run to being a fully functional world power and what that will bring for the rest of us we don't know.
And that's to say nothing of India, the Arab Spring, the industrialization of an entire continent (Africa), Latin Americas rise, the relegation of America to just normal, and Europe's own stagnation/population problems.
We think we know what our world is like but in actuality we have no clue, the status quo is now rapid and unpredictable change. Information about disasters and social upheaval are delivered to us all within minutes not hours and not days of when they happen. Governments no longer can control like they used to. Power is shifting.
It is, in my opinion, an evening out (or as Thomas Friedman would say, flattening) of the teams. Weaker teams are gaining while the more powerful ones are dealing with their age, but in the end they are all going to end up on the same level more or less. Black and white together make gray. All the colors of the rainbow together make brown.
When? I have no clue.
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A programming note:
I am no longer going to do breakdowns of magazines I read. I'm going to try and write about the topics and articles as they come to me and if I don't get to talking about them specifically I'm just going to dump the links on you over each weekend. If that works, great, if not, then I'll just try something else.
Now I'm not going to sit here and tell you that China will not be the worlds largest economy, that is going to happen, the numbers dictate as much. When? I have no clue. But I can tell you it is not going to be smooth sailing. China has many problems going forward; an unsustainable aging population, far too many more males than females, restive minority popilations, ubiquitous corruption, no government accountability, horrendous environmental standards, and a growing gap between the rich and poor, just to name a few. China is going to hit bumps, HUGE bumps, in its run to being a fully functional world power and what that will bring for the rest of us we don't know.
And that's to say nothing of India, the Arab Spring, the industrialization of an entire continent (Africa), Latin Americas rise, the relegation of America to just normal, and Europe's own stagnation/population problems.
We think we know what our world is like but in actuality we have no clue, the status quo is now rapid and unpredictable change. Information about disasters and social upheaval are delivered to us all within minutes not hours and not days of when they happen. Governments no longer can control like they used to. Power is shifting.
It is, in my opinion, an evening out (or as Thomas Friedman would say, flattening) of the teams. Weaker teams are gaining while the more powerful ones are dealing with their age, but in the end they are all going to end up on the same level more or less. Black and white together make gray. All the colors of the rainbow together make brown.
When? I have no clue.
-------
A programming note:
I am no longer going to do breakdowns of magazines I read. I'm going to try and write about the topics and articles as they come to me and if I don't get to talking about them specifically I'm just going to dump the links on you over each weekend. If that works, great, if not, then I'll just try something else.
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