Some Thoughts On The Economist May 14th - 20th 2011

Really good Afghan coverage this week, paired with this news, I think my thoughts from earlier in the week are looking better.

Did someone say bubble?
I do think some of these companies are overvalued considering in the end all they hold are pageviews which navigate to the coolest new trends but with that said the market and technology are not the same as a decade ago. Then again I know only what I read online and hear from Planet Money.

Microsoft did not buy Skype to make money, because this market will never make money, especially with Google and Apple all ready in the game and I'm sure Facebook will jump in at some point as well. They must have bought it to integrate it into a future OS and enhance current products. Personally I would like to see, and I think we will some day, an integration of video chatting into the phone system as a whole, regardless of what operator you use.

List the World Cup on Ebay?
Would eliminate board corruption, would reward teams who are looking to spend money on the sport and would set the drama to zero? I'm cool with it.

Security State? You must be white.
Caveat: I'm a middle class, white, male.
I find it interesting that the majority of this country found it ok that people could be stopped at random, searched, roughed up and jailed on a bogus charge but to be inconvenienced at the airport is an outrage.

Once Again......
I would like to stress that if China and India do not start importing females soon then they are in for a whole lot of social upheaval in the next few decades. If China doesn't end its one child policy soon it is going to need to really liberalize on immigration to deal with the huge increase in retirees going forward. In other words China's ascendancy is in for a rocky furture

Consolation Prize
It appears that although we have seen our retirement funds wither away, debt pile up and had to deal with job insecurity all of that was a rouse win back our jobs from the Chinese!

To limit or not to limit?
I think its moronic that we kid ourself into thinking that putting limits on our debt but not our spending will keep us from appropriating too many funds. With that said I like that it requires us to think about our debt obligations and reassess if it is the right thing to do, regardless of how stupid the debate becomes.

Some Thoughts On Newt's Announcement

You may or may not have heard, but former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich announced that he will in fact run for President of the United States.  This was an announcement that was widely expected for months now. It is also widely expected that Newt will not win the nomination. Why is that known you might ask? It has something to do with his love life and how it plays with this, his thoughts about the seating arrangements on Air Force One, and the fact that Bill Clinton stole his lunch. But of course the news networks will cover him and his run like he matters. Again, your 4th Estate at work!

Some More Thoughts On Bin Laden

Apparently the US and Afghan governments have been holding super secret talks (though if it is appearing on this blog I doubt it is all that secret) with various factions of the Taliban in order to bring them into the government fold. It also appears that the death of Osama bin Laden does not complicate those talks, if anything it makes them easier. According to Ahmed Rashid who spoke on NPR's Fresh Air the death of OBL may negate the personal debt that Taliban leader Mohammed Omar has to Al Qaeda (in particular OBL).

Setting aside the fact that the Taliban peacefully integrating back into Afghan society would be nothing short of amazing, let us contemplate what this would do to US domestic politics. I'm no expert (though I do have a degree in Political Science) but would the Afghan and Iraq* wars ending on Mr. Obama's watch not castrate the national security issue in respect to GOP politics? Not to mention it might give Mr. Obama enough political capital to cut the defense budget significantly.

The point of this brief post really is that if you are thinking of donating to Barack Obama's reelection campaign you may be better off investing in a high end disputes lawyer and buying him a ticket to Kabul.

*George W Bush deserves credit for implementing "The Surge" as well as overseeing "The Awakening" movement among Sunni's in Iraq. Without those policies we may well have seen a much less stable Iraq at this time.

My Thoughts on The Economist May 7th - 13th 2011

Redistricting rows: Not so easy
It warms my heart to see that even in a place like Texas redistricting can still be difficult. Some day this nonsense will stop and all districts will be redrawn by an algorithm. That of course will happen in 2076.

Chicago's new police superintendent: The new blue
Is it not counterintuitive that a chief of police comes from a city other than the one he is from? Does he not need an innate knowledge of the city and the citizenry he is protecting? Wasn't Compstat proved to be a load of bullshit and what really works is boots on the ground and a relationship with your local police department? Am I going crazy?

China's population: The most surprising demographic crisis
I assume that is sarcasm in the title but one never does know. But a country that isn't hitting the replacement rate, has very large "boomer" generation, has about eighteen more boys per hundred girls and has yet to hit democracy/labor movements is definitely going to have some social issues in the future.

Robots and Japan's nuclear disaster: Nukebots
Reason 3294850298 I love Massachusetts, we made the robots that Japan can't make.

Pakistan is on no one's side:
And we better start realizing that sooner rather than later.

Real time advertising is the wave of the wave of the future........
......that is until it isn't.

And what are they going to do when the all those IE users eventually die off and the dominant browsers all support a version of Ad Block? What then Don Draper? What then?!?!

The Beer Market
First of all, that's a lot of Stella in that cart. Second: Stella is actually a shit beer to the rest of the world. Third: it is pronounced Who-Gar-Den. Fourth Craft Brews will be brought in to the fold by the big players just like every other "revolution" in every other market. Fifth: OMG THEY FINALLY FIGURED OUT THAT BEER IS CHEAPER AT THE STORE THAN AT THE BAR?!?! THE APOCALYPSE IS UPON US!!!!

Some Thoughts on Bin Laden

Thought #1

If the US government and the world ran the way I would like then he would have been taken alive and tried for his crimes, a practice offered to US citizens on a daily basis and something we should extend to the world, it would only improve our image. Now if I could have my way in the fullest I would like to see it all go down in the way that Lawrence Wright lays out in his recent appearance on Fresh Air, an Osama bin Laden that sees himself tried for each crime in each of the respective countries that his followers carried out his attacks, which culminates in his being tried under Sharia law in his home country of Saudi Arabia (with the possibility of being beheaded in a public setting). But alas the world is not my oyster.

With all that said and knowing the world in which we live in the actual outcome was probably the best that could have happened. If he were taken alive he would have been taken to Guantanamo Bay and the whole thing would have been mishandled from there for years with him being executed with the Muslim street thinking he was murdered by Americans and not brought to justice. His being shot in the head was the best option and kudos to the Navy Seal team for knowing that that's what their bosses really wanted even though they probably didn't voice it.

Thought #2

This will change very little in the scheme of things. Yes its great that we removed an iconic figure of radical Islam and yes this will set back Al Qaeda quite a bit but the positives end there. The problem is is that this "War on Terror" is a lot like the "War on Drugs", there is only one concrete and state oriented side in this fight where as the opposing faction in this "War" is loosely connected via ideology. And even that bond isn't that strong.

As long as there are people buying the crazy that the Islamists are selling then there will always be Islamists. Offer the Muslim street a better alternative (true democracy perhaps?) and then and only then will you see the Islamists fall by the wayside.

Thought #3

Hey America! How about next time we kill someone we don't like we don't act like we collectively won every major sporting event all at once? K? Thanx!

Yes I know he was a horrible human being and yes I think the world is better off without him but celebrating death never helped any situation in the long term. My point is, as outlined by the previous thought, we don't actually "win" until the rest of the world thinks we are decent people and that we are not out to destroy their way of life. How does dancing on the grave of a man some of them may be sympathetic too achieve that?

And as a fellow "Millennial" I don't buy this closure thing being propagated by my peers yes Osama bin Laden may be dead but that does not mean everything will go back to normal (not in the sense that you knew someone who died on September 11th in that respect I completely understand that this may mean closure and that is not what I am speaking to, I'm speaking to what was discussed in this weeks This American Life).

September 11th altered the fabric of America for good (Lexington speaks well to this) and the worst thing that could happen is if we go back to thinking terrorism is only something that happens "over there" and not to us. The party atmosphere was naive, if not just perfectly American in the sense that we are always looking for an excuse to throw a party.

Further Reading:

Steve Coll on OBL's death

The Economist briefing on OBL's death

NYT Obituary on OBL

The Economist April 30th - May 6th 2011

Cloud Computing's Growing Pains: Break-ins and breakdowns
What I find hilarious about the outrage with the compromising of data online is that people seem to think that this is innately due to the relative newness of the technology and the corresponding market. The thought that overtime this won't happen is ludicrous. People still rob banks, piracy continues to plague the seas and muggings still happen. All this even though we now have security cameras, spend billions on anti piracy measures and personal use of mace and tasers. Online capers will never go away, the stakes will only get higher.

America's transport infrastructure: Life in the slow lane
I love infrastructure projects, and I loathe the lack of train infrastructure in the US. So it should not come as a surprise that I agree that the US is woefully underspending on infrastructure. We are not just talking about potholes either, we area talking about losing economic prowess and jobs to other countries because we make the cost of doing business harder due to our lack of a modern transport network.

America's jobless me: Decline of the working man
And while we are at it why don't we employee the millions of men in the construction trade to improve that said transport infrastructure?

Europe's political parties: The shrinking big tents
While reading this I couldn't help relate it to the fragmentation of TV since the introduction of cable channels. The overwhelming majority of viewers of television in the US used to be held by the big three broadcasting companies ABC, NBC and CBS but now because of the spread of satellite and cable technologies as well as the internet their ratings are shrinking. Like TV ratings votes in political systems that allow for choice (parliamentary systems) are spreading out across the spectrum. This must be because of the internet and the downward cost of advertising that allows people to easily identify and engage with smaller parties instead of having to choose between the political behemoths that used to dominate the market.

Nuptial Economics: Unbridled
A $19,000 signing bonus to marry a woman from the UAE?

Economic Focus: Botox and beancounting
Why do country's report official economic numbers in such varying ways? Do they not realize that they only confuse those who vote? Oh wait....

Some Thoughts on The Economist April 23rd - 29th 2011

This weekly post has everything to do with me forcing myself to read the whole Economist by Tuesday and nothing to do with you caring. I will try to keep it to less than 10 articles a week because that is the limit for non-subscribers.

Thrusters v Laggers

I am eagerly looking forward to the year that we more or less have a national primary day and we can dispose of this 6 month primary nonsense. I have no facts to back up my case, but I would be willing to guess that the extended primary season contributes heavily to the billions spent on elections. Personally I would love to see a national primary day in the beginning of July followed by a run off for the top two in each party in September followed by 2 months of campaigning and then the final match-up in November. We would save money and vastly shorten the presidential campaign season, maybe this might even benefit governance in someway.

Brazil's Economy: Wild Horses

I really just wanted to call your attention to this graph more than anything. Bad news for US citizens and their Brazilian vacations but good news for those US citizens looking to sell US products to Brazilians.

The River Nile: A dam nuisance

Insult to injury right here, not only is Egypt losing clout due to an internal power struggle (you call it democracy I call it veiled elites vying for power, pun intended) but their upstream neighbors get together and steal the water rights to to one of their national treasures! I'm linking to this because when most of us think about water rights we  imagine Western states jockeying for the ability to keep their grass green in the middle of the desert. This is all about the ability to harness the Nile for energy purposes, which all of Africa is going to need badly when the boom times kick in to top gear. Wars will be fought over water but possible not for drinking purposes.

Croatia and Serbia: Protest days

One country's war hero is the rest of the world's war criminal. Makes you wonder what would have happened to a certain Civil War General if the war was fought in the present international climate.

Others:
Schumpeter: The case against globaloney
Bagehot: No more royal weddings
Direct Democracy: Vox populi or hoi polloi?
Out-of-home advertising: Billboard boom