Some Thoughts on Happiness & Politics

My initial reaction to this Businessweek story was "Really?" Mostly because I would never blame the current state of the economy on the President, good or bad. Then I realized what the article really was saying; more than anything people vote with their happiness. If times are good, people are more obliged to keep it that way, and are less likely to vote in an unknown. But when times are bad, people are more likely to take a look at what the other guy is selling. I think the best example of this was Ronald Reagan's famous line, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" That line directly linked the state of one's life to Jimmy Carter's election in 1976 (to be fair unemployment was practically the same when he came in as when he went out but it was the lower numbers in between that he was judged on) and back to the present, and guess what? A whole lot of people said no.

It doesn't matter how trustworthy Barack Obama is or how cool he seems, if he is tagged with making millions of people unhappy then he stands no chance at reelection and with the current economic numbers and the inability of Washington to do anything good for the economy, one never knows.

Some Thoughts on Who the Voters Will Blame in 2012

Not really all that relevant to the story but Is Rick Scott's zeal/ineptitude going to effect the 2012 election in Florida even though he is not on the ballot? His approval rating as of the end of March was 29% and if memory serves me correctly even his party turned on him over his rejection of high speed rail money. A lot has been made of what swing states with high unemployment (Florida's is over 10%) will do when it comes to the Presidential elections but nothing seems to have been made of who is to blame in these swing states. May Barack Obama get a pass because Floridians blame Rick Scott for their woes? In WI I'm sure Mr. Obama could get a pass on a lot of things simply because Scott Walker, the most visible Republican in the state, is not well liked either, not to mention what a certain Representative from WI has done to single handedly diminish GOP 2012 chances. . Of course this is all subject to change and I could be completely wrong but I think this is something that is going under reported and would love to see some polling on it.

Some Thoughts on Mitch Daniels

I never thought he would run, mostly because it would have been very hard for him to talk candidly about the debt and spending problems when the opposition (GOP and Dem alike) tried to paint those problems as his to begin with (he was George W Bush's budget man). With that said, if he had run I do not think he would have garnered as much support as everyone was saying he was bound to get. I think Mitt Romney has all ready staked his claim as the moderate Republican, with Tim Pawlenty to the right and John Huntsman trying to be slightly to Romney's left. I saw no space for Daniels and my guess is Daniels saw that as well.

I had planned to write about how I thought Daniels mirrored the prospect of Wesley Clark in 2004, but I was overtaken by events.

Some Thoughts On Newt's Announcement

You may or may not have heard, but former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich announced that he will in fact run for President of the United States.  This was an announcement that was widely expected for months now. It is also widely expected that Newt will not win the nomination. Why is that known you might ask? It has something to do with his love life and how it plays with this, his thoughts about the seating arrangements on Air Force One, and the fact that Bill Clinton stole his lunch. But of course the news networks will cover him and his run like he matters. Again, your 4th Estate at work!