China is Screwed Continued

From Businessweek:

"at some point it doesn't make sense to keep on building," says Chovanec. "China has built tomorrow's infrastructure and housing today so what is it going to build tomorrow?"

Something tells me this chart is going to level off at some point, and a lot of people are not going to be happy about it.....

Some Critical Thoughts on China

Whenever I see an article that references China's success I always feel the need to comment on how much they still have to work out. Now the article got me going this time was actually a great article and the author did nothing wrong but I still feel the need to put China in it's place.

The point of the article is that China is booming and as a result fewer Chinese people are seeking out their futures in America. That's great, go China! In my opinion the more awesomeness in the world the better. But fewer emigration does not a successful society make. China has many unresolved problems that will crop up.

1. They have far more young men than young girls as a result of their one child policy. From this one can assume that their will be many sexually frustrated men in the coming decades. Either China embraces polygamy and or prostitution (both of which have numerous detractors globally) or it must seriously address the problem.

2. Another casualty of China's one child policy is it's aging population. In order to cope with this problem China is going to have to allow for a lot of immigration. Which we all know is never a hot button issue. More on this later.

3. Endemic favoritism and corruption. Not only will this get in the way of liberalizing an economy but this will stoke social and ethnic tensions. One can an imagine a situation in which Han Chinese officials prefer to do business with fellow Hans and not the countries minorities.

Which leads me to...

4. China's lack of an open society will be its Achilles heal. Without a proper way to air grievances how will China ever be able to overcome the effects of a gender gap, inequality, a need for rising immigration, disgruntled minorities and corrupt officials? Without a credible system what citizenry will stand by as the government ignores problems in order to maintain power and enrich itself? We are currently seeing A Russian population is growing weary of the implicit bargain that a limited society equals better living standards. What happens when China inevitably slows down (India all ready is)? I for one don't see the Occupy movement going over well in China.

While China is prospering now I do not see a happy ending if it maintains its current path.

For further reading I recommend The Economist's special report on China.

Thoughts on Latin Alternatives to China

This weeks economist saw two articles in regards to good news for Latin American economies (Panama and China). And for those of you China haters and doom/gloom lovers this should be where you should be focusing your misguided worry. Free trade agreements and better relations with Latin American countries would likely help diversify our trade towards more Latin American goods not to mention help the environment, halt the influx of illegal immigrants and just be all around great for the world economy.

Though if you are looking for continued cheap all inclusive vacations to suspect countries in Central America then maybe you should ignore this.

Some Thoughts On The Economist May 14th - 20th 2011

Really good Afghan coverage this week, paired with this news, I think my thoughts from earlier in the week are looking better.

Did someone say bubble?
I do think some of these companies are overvalued considering in the end all they hold are pageviews which navigate to the coolest new trends but with that said the market and technology are not the same as a decade ago. Then again I know only what I read online and hear from Planet Money.

Microsoft did not buy Skype to make money, because this market will never make money, especially with Google and Apple all ready in the game and I'm sure Facebook will jump in at some point as well. They must have bought it to integrate it into a future OS and enhance current products. Personally I would like to see, and I think we will some day, an integration of video chatting into the phone system as a whole, regardless of what operator you use.

List the World Cup on Ebay?
Would eliminate board corruption, would reward teams who are looking to spend money on the sport and would set the drama to zero? I'm cool with it.

Security State? You must be white.
Caveat: I'm a middle class, white, male.
I find it interesting that the majority of this country found it ok that people could be stopped at random, searched, roughed up and jailed on a bogus charge but to be inconvenienced at the airport is an outrage.

Once Again......
I would like to stress that if China and India do not start importing females soon then they are in for a whole lot of social upheaval in the next few decades. If China doesn't end its one child policy soon it is going to need to really liberalize on immigration to deal with the huge increase in retirees going forward. In other words China's ascendancy is in for a rocky furture

Consolation Prize
It appears that although we have seen our retirement funds wither away, debt pile up and had to deal with job insecurity all of that was a rouse win back our jobs from the Chinese!

To limit or not to limit?
I think its moronic that we kid ourself into thinking that putting limits on our debt but not our spending will keep us from appropriating too many funds. With that said I like that it requires us to think about our debt obligations and reassess if it is the right thing to do, regardless of how stupid the debate becomes.

My Thoughts on The Economist May 7th - 13th 2011

Redistricting rows: Not so easy
It warms my heart to see that even in a place like Texas redistricting can still be difficult. Some day this nonsense will stop and all districts will be redrawn by an algorithm. That of course will happen in 2076.

Chicago's new police superintendent: The new blue
Is it not counterintuitive that a chief of police comes from a city other than the one he is from? Does he not need an innate knowledge of the city and the citizenry he is protecting? Wasn't Compstat proved to be a load of bullshit and what really works is boots on the ground and a relationship with your local police department? Am I going crazy?

China's population: The most surprising demographic crisis
I assume that is sarcasm in the title but one never does know. But a country that isn't hitting the replacement rate, has very large "boomer" generation, has about eighteen more boys per hundred girls and has yet to hit democracy/labor movements is definitely going to have some social issues in the future.

Robots and Japan's nuclear disaster: Nukebots
Reason 3294850298 I love Massachusetts, we made the robots that Japan can't make.

Pakistan is on no one's side:
And we better start realizing that sooner rather than later.

Real time advertising is the wave of the wave of the future........
......that is until it isn't.

And what are they going to do when the all those IE users eventually die off and the dominant browsers all support a version of Ad Block? What then Don Draper? What then?!?!

The Beer Market
First of all, that's a lot of Stella in that cart. Second: Stella is actually a shit beer to the rest of the world. Third: it is pronounced Who-Gar-Den. Fourth Craft Brews will be brought in to the fold by the big players just like every other "revolution" in every other market. Fifth: OMG THEY FINALLY FIGURED OUT THAT BEER IS CHEAPER AT THE STORE THAN AT THE BAR?!?! THE APOCALYPSE IS UPON US!!!!