This Blog Has Moved

You can now find my blog at its new url.

The new RSS can be found here.

on Immigration

Why do we restrict immigration? From what I understand the answer is that we want to protect American jobs. I think thats hogwash and there is evidence to back me up. If smart and wealthy people want into the club that is America they should be given the opportunity to do so. Those individuals will come here and spend, work, innovate and hire other Americans. In short they will help grow America and help bring down costs for us all. Anyone who says otherwise is either prejudiced or just plain scared.

on Afghanistan

As it has been in the news quite a bit the past few days, the accidental burning of Korans has been on my mind as of late. While I understand that the burning of religious texts can be seen as an affront to ones religion and it being done by people who seem to share very little in common with the average Afghan can can not help but make it worse, I find it perplexing that the outrage is so strong. It was an accident after all, for which the President of the United States apologized for in an election year. It was an accident unlike the death squads, the torture, the corruption, the desecration of corpses and the 10 year occupation that can and is associated with American forces in Afghanistan.

But it's the Korans they are mad about. Something has gone terribly terribly awry in that country, and I don't think we know who exactly is to blame.

on Language Barriers

One of the books I am currently reading is Nicholas Wapshott's Keynes Hayek (a book I probably wont get into much on here due to my lack of confidence in talking about economics, but as always I reserve the right to change my mind) and the following passage represents something that keeps beating me over the head through out the whole book:

Teaching gave Hayek pleasure, though his difficulty with English hampered his ability to transmit his message. “All of us were excited to hear that Hayek had arrived,” recalled Theodore Draimin, an LSE undergraduate in 1932. “When we arrived for the first lecture he commenced to talk in English. After a few minutes, it became apparent that none of us could understand a word he said. Some suggested he speak in German. This he did, and those of us unable to understand had to leave the course.” 

Here is a man who is arguably one of the more brilliant minds of his generation but because he did not speak English his arguments either were muddled or never heard by any one who did not speak German.

It is striking that speech, something that small children do with ease, can cause such division and distrust when it is not completely understood. Here's to someone bringing our world the equivalent of the babel fish for he will be the bringer of peace and prosperity. Or not.

on The Command

As you may or may not know, I enjoy reading Marc Ambinder. So it should not surprise anyone that when his short e-book on JSOC, titled The Command, was released, I devoured it in a weekend. If you are at all interested in America's Special Forces then I highly recommend the book. Ambinder and Grady really hit this one out of the park, go buy it.

What most fascinated me was the swift and extremely effective change that occurred right before the surge in Iraq in the way JSOC gathers, disseminates and acts open intelligence throughout the US military and Federal bureaucracy. I used to think what we see in the Bourne movies was pure fantasy, but now I'm starting to think it reflects reality fairly well:

Here is how a colleague of General Flynn’s described the change in procedures on the ground: “What would normally happen is: the shooters would kick down a door and snatch everyone and drag them to the front room, and then take everything with them, and put it in a trash bag. The bad guys would be taken to a detention facility and the pocket litter would come back to [the intelligence analysts]. Flynn thought this was stupid. Instead, he gave the shooters—think of this—the Delta guys, mini cameras, and schooled them in some basic detective techniques. When you capture someone, take a picture of them exactly where you captured them. Take detailed notes of who was doing what with what. Don’t merge all the pocket litter.”  

He continued, “Then, the shooters were supposed to e-mail back an image of the person they captured to Balad [JSOC’s intelligence headquarters], where analysts would run it through every facial recognition database we have, or fingerprints or names, or what have you. We’d get hits immediately. And so our intel guys would radio back to the team in the field, ‘Hey, you’ve got Abu-so-and-so, or someone who looks like them. See if he knows where Abu–other-person is.’”

And that’s what the shooters would do. They’d tell their captured insurgents that for a price, they could help them. A senior JSOC intelligence commander said, “They’d say, ‘I know you, you’re so-and-so. And if you want us to help you, you need to tell us where this other person is.’ And it would work. And then, when we got a new address, sometimes within twenty minutes of the first boot on the door, we’d have another team of shooters going to another location.” Follow-up interrogations were plotted out like dense crime dramas, with dozens of participants, including some by video teleconference.  

Instead of three operations every two weeks, JSOC was able to increase its operations tempo (or “optempo”) significantly, sometimes raiding five or six places a night. This completely bewildered insurgents and al-Qaeda sympathizers, who had no idea what was going on. In April 2004, according to classified unit histories, JSOC participated in fewer than a dozen operations in Iraq. By July 2006, its teams were exceeding 250 a month. McChrystal’s operations center was open for fifteen hours a day, regardless of where he was. There is a strong correlation between the pace of JSOC operations, the death rate of Iraqi insurgents and terrorists, and the overall decline in violence that lasted long enough for U.S. troops to surge into the country and “hold” areas that used to be incredibly dangerous.

They went from under 12 operations a month to over 250 a month! That's just insane! Ambinder & Grady don't mention it explicitly here but what I really think is the revolutionary thing is not the change in tactics per se but the trust and decision making placed in the hands of the "shooters". By empowering them to do the on the ground investigation and analysis it enabled the intelligence to be acted upon much earlier and more than likely put the enemy on their heals. A lot like when an offense goes no huddle in football and as a result of the defense not being prepared the entire momentum of the game shifts.

on Health Jobs

I'm starting to think that while growth in the healthcare sector is good for the economy in the current jobs crisis over the long run it is not ideal. Here is Ryan Avent in his book The Gated City:

(People are) moving to places where job growth is heavily concentrated in non-export industries with very low productivity growth: largely health care and education.

It is less likely to innovate and as Sarah Kliff points out, with 1 in 5 people moving into the profession we are less likely to stem the debilitating cost growth in the health care sector. What I am personally worried about is that this going to draw highly intelligent, productive members of our society away from densely populated, highly productive regions of the country (New York, San Francisco, DC & Boston) to less desirable, sprawl ridden areas of the country. Drawn away to fill jobs, while very much needed and admirable, that will give little in the way of innovation and economic growth. These individuals would be better suited working in a densely packed metropolis with a multitude of biotech, pharmaceutical and health research firms to feed off of and innovate. Not parts of the countries whose greatest claim to fame is the availability of cheap land.

on Farming and Manufacturing in the South

You  can thank/blame better farming equipment for the conditions that led to "Right to Work" laws in the South:

Agricultural productivity pushed millions of farm workers off their land and created a large pool of poor, jobless workers. Finding employment for those workers became a high priority for southern politicians, many of which underwent a dramatic political transformation -- from a focus on protecting southern culture from the federal government, to aggressively recruiting new enterprises from the industrial portions of the country. State leaders began to wave generous incentive packages at northern firms, including tax breaks and right-to-work laws, in order to attract production facilities. And many were successful; industrial employment rose sharply across the south, turning the southern Piedmont into the country's second industrial heartland. 

That is from Ryan Avent's book The Gated City.


All of this makes sense; a large pool of labor puts pressure on politicians who, to save their own jobs, bend over backwards to entice business to their states. Which in turn hurts labors position in said states. A sacrifice locals don't mind because having a low paying non-union job is better than not having a job at all, but to workers in the midwest it was a death sentence. A well played game by management.

Links! Links! Links!

Biden policy lives (The Economist)
Long live the blog (The Economist)
More on what they are arguing about (The Economist)
Co-Working: Not exactly working from home, but not exactly going into the office either. (The Economist)
The Problem with Naming Transit Stations (Atlantic Cities)
Layaway is making a comeback, and that's a good thing (Free Exchange)
We take the historical site bullshit a little too far (Matt Yglesias)
Finally! Recess! (Plain Blog)

on Sin Taxes

The Economist has a piece on how the effectiveness of sin taxes is leading to a government shortfall in revenues (UK Government). What they fail to address is how the gains lifespan, that will result from such a change in behavior, will effect the economy. A longer life span will lead to more productivity per person, an expansion of the work force and therefore a greater expansion of the economy in comparison to one with more drinking, smoking and gas consumption. While a short term problem it certainly is (much in the same way the EPA's critics claim higher environmental standards are bad for business) the long term gains far outweigh it.

on The Big Short

I used to feel bad when I thought of layoffs on Wall Street, no one should go wanting for work, least of all those trained for a particular trade. Then I read Michael Lewis's narrative of the financial crisis and came to a much different mindset; Wall Street attracts the ambitious and that ambition is promptly wasted. Innovation is directed at ways to better fuck over one's counterparts through convoluted and hard to understand financial vehicles. So it is my opinion that the less attractive the finance industry appears to be then the the fewer talented individuals will be lured away; which in turn leads to fewer morons (Germans in this case) being fucked over.

While I was aghast at the over all ruthlessness of the industry, Mr Lewis is more focused on how the lack of responsibility and accountability has led to a culture in which fees and personal enrichment purvey rather than loyalty and good faith in regards to ones clients. A likely outcome when the utter destruction of a clients portfolio at worst leads to an early, yet cushy, retirement from finance.

To me what is most striking about the book is the lack of mention of the authorities. This is not a testament to the reporting, on the contrary, the characters reported on in the story approached the authorities only to be rebuffed (more like stared at with confused looks). It's shocking to think that such pervasive fraud and deception went on with the authorities having little to no knowledge of it. Those with the responsibility protect the markets should never have to rely on the market players themselves to do the right thing. We should be spending vast sums of money to employ individuals to understand the markets and their potential weaknesses. The cost is a fraction of the lost productivity that occurs after a financial crisis and in my opinion is money well spent.

In closing I find it rather humorous that Martha Stewart received more jail time than any individual that was complicit in the largest financial disaster since the Great Depression. We could do better.

Links! Links! Links!

US Population Growth Slowing (Wonkblog)

A Baguette Vending  Machine (Matt Yglesias)

Where Unused Gift-Cards Go (Wonkblog)

America's Best & Worst Airports (Atlantic Cities)

I would read this book (The Economist)

More Apartments less Single Family Homes (Matt Yglesias)

on Investing for Retirement

As I continue to read The Big Short by Michael Lewis it is becoming more and more evident to me that a lot of what happens in the investment world is either fucking someone over or using them to take exorbitant fees. So one should not be surprised that I agree with Matt Yglesias that investing should not be for normal people. It's complicated, people who spend their whole life in finance still struggle to be good at it so why do we think the average Joe can manage it on top of everything else in life?

Putting money aside for retirement should be easy, not detrimental to your retirement itself.

Links! Links! Links!

Where have all the hitchhikers gone? (Freakonomics)
Again, screwing with the sex ratio is not going to help in the long run. (Freakonomics)
The World's Next 20 Tallest Skyscrapers. (Atlantic Cities)

Links! Links! Links!

Wired:
The rise and fall of Bitcoin.
Amazon is the future.

The Economist:
South Koreans are insane when it comes to standardized testing.

A great Radio Lab short, just listen to it.

From Matt Yglesias, online piracy is not exactly theft.

From Atlantic Cities can we save Suburbs?

Links! Links! Links!

Bloomberg:

Afghanistan really was a no good very bad place, from a logistics standpoint, for the US to have invaded.

Leaving a party when you are the largest military force on the planet is a lot more complicated than you think.

I think Lithuania is getting one of the worst deals when it comes to the debt crisis.

China continues to experience growing pains.

The Economist:

Language continues to be weird.

And so does America and Religion.

3D printing marches onward.

Including Taxes in the Posted Price

In Colin Grey's video Death to Pennies he mentions how it is absurd that we do not include tax in posted prices at stores. As a result of this oversight individuals are unable to efficiently use their change to pay for items. My problem is with inefficiency of the whole affair; calculating the tax one time when marking the price on the shelf as well as the price being constantly priced and repriced in the heads of the customers and then recalculated again at the register. While the register does that instantaneously we humans tend to struggle even with the most basic of math. The result must be lost time, more stress and I would assume lost sales.

I think the excuse that if we include the tax in the prices people will be dismayed by the higher prices. I is exaggerated. Individuals take tax into account when making a purchase so why would they not switch from expecting tax to expecting higher prices?

Some Thoughts on Dollar Coins

The US government is ending the dollar coin program because they have 1.4 billion of them all ready in storage. Matt Yglesias jokingly (at least I think it's a joke) says we should pick 1,400 random people and give each of them a million of them. I certainly would love to receive that many dollar coins as would many 5 year olds but I can't say the same for the rest of society. I would assume they would for the most part end up back at the Federal Reserve.


Instead I think we should do away with the dollar bill all together and force people to use the coins. If coins are indeed more cost effective to use then we should be pushing individuals to use them not simply giving them the option. 


While we're at it how about we do away with the penny and add a 50 cent piece and a $2 coin to reduce the amount of coinage out there. I can't find a GAO report on that but I would expect that reducing the amount of currency by increasing denominations would save money. 


And for those of you who will complain about having to carry around pockets full of coins I would like to point out that with implementing $1 $2 & 50¢ coins and the elimination of the penny (also if you use them efficiently) you should never have more than 6 coins in your pocket at any given time. Think about it.

China is Screwed Continued

From Businessweek:

"at some point it doesn't make sense to keep on building," says Chovanec. "China has built tomorrow's infrastructure and housing today so what is it going to build tomorrow?"

Something tells me this chart is going to level off at some point, and a lot of people are not going to be happy about it.....

Some Critical Thoughts on China

Whenever I see an article that references China's success I always feel the need to comment on how much they still have to work out. Now the article got me going this time was actually a great article and the author did nothing wrong but I still feel the need to put China in it's place.

The point of the article is that China is booming and as a result fewer Chinese people are seeking out their futures in America. That's great, go China! In my opinion the more awesomeness in the world the better. But fewer emigration does not a successful society make. China has many unresolved problems that will crop up.

1. They have far more young men than young girls as a result of their one child policy. From this one can assume that their will be many sexually frustrated men in the coming decades. Either China embraces polygamy and or prostitution (both of which have numerous detractors globally) or it must seriously address the problem.

2. Another casualty of China's one child policy is it's aging population. In order to cope with this problem China is going to have to allow for a lot of immigration. Which we all know is never a hot button issue. More on this later.

3. Endemic favoritism and corruption. Not only will this get in the way of liberalizing an economy but this will stoke social and ethnic tensions. One can an imagine a situation in which Han Chinese officials prefer to do business with fellow Hans and not the countries minorities.

Which leads me to...

4. China's lack of an open society will be its Achilles heal. Without a proper way to air grievances how will China ever be able to overcome the effects of a gender gap, inequality, a need for rising immigration, disgruntled minorities and corrupt officials? Without a credible system what citizenry will stand by as the government ignores problems in order to maintain power and enrich itself? We are currently seeing A Russian population is growing weary of the implicit bargain that a limited society equals better living standards. What happens when China inevitably slows down (India all ready is)? I for one don't see the Occupy movement going over well in China.

While China is prospering now I do not see a happy ending if it maintains its current path.

For further reading I recommend The Economist's special report on China.

Blame Hitler for Suburbs

Kind of....

Edward Glaeser's Triumph of the City:

Levitt's average earned home buyer earned about half that amount ($8000 in 1950) per year. Few of them would have had eight grand to put down for a new Levitt house, but the federal government was splurging on housing subsidies. The GI Bill offered no-down-payment housing loans for veterans, and the Federal Housing Administration guaranteed up to 95 percent of mortgages for middle income buyers. With a government-guarenteed loan, Levitt's buyers only needed to come up with $400 to buy a home packed with modern appliances and surrounded by leafy space

Aaaaand if you want to really stretch it you could blame him for the culture of home buying that led to the housing crisis......

William Levitt invented the low cost suburb the predecessor of what we know as the modern day suburb.

Update: It should also be noted that another well known anti Semite in Henry Ford is also to blame for Suburbs.